Probability of Improving ERA in 2019; Full Board

Here’s a table of pitchers who threw at least 50IP in 2018. The far right column is the probability they’ll have a better ERA in 2019 (should they pitch in 2019).  The basis for this table comes from this post on Identifying Bounceback Candidates (Pitcher Edition)

Pitcher Team IP ERA Probability of Improving
Tanner Scott Orioles 53.1 5.4 96.4%
Paul Sewald Mets 56.1 6.07 93.7%
Burch Smith Royals 78 6.92 93.7%
Jason Vargas Mets 92 5.77 93.0%
Tayron Guerrero Marlins 58 5.43 92.6%
Dan Otero Indians 58.2 5.22 92.2%
Erick Fedde Nationals 50.1 5.54 91.7%
Matt Andriese – – – 78.2 5.26 90.8%
Marcus Stroman Blue Jays 102.1 5.54 90.8%
Ryan Madson – – – 52.2 5.47 89.8%
Domingo German Yankees 85.2 5.57 89.2%
Corey Oswalt Mets 64.2 5.85 89.2%
Ken Giles – – – 50.1 4.65 88.6%
Nick Pivetta Phillies 164 4.77 88.6%
John Axford – – – 54.2 5.27 88.6%
Homer Bailey Reds 106.1 6.09 88.6%
Jace Fry White Sox 51.1 4.38 88.0%
Trevor Hildenberger Twins 73 5.42 88.0%
Clayton Richard Padres 158.2 5.33 87.4%
Jake McGee Rockies 51.1 6.49 86.1%
Joe Biagini Blue Jays 72 6 85.3%
Corey Knebel Brewers 55.1 3.58 84.6%
Matt Moore Rangers 102 6.79 84.6%
Brandon McCarthy Braves 78.2 4.92 83.8%
Sam Gaviglio Blue Jays 123.2 5.31 83.0%
Felix Hernandez Mariners 155.2 5.55 83.0%
Chris Rusin Rockies 54.2 6.09 83.0%
Dylan Bundy Orioles 171.2 5.45 82.1%
Anthony DeSclafani Reds 115 4.93 81.2%
Jon Gray Rockies 172.1 5.12 81.2%
Robbie Erlin Padres 109 4.21 80.3%
Shane Bieber Indians 114.2 4.55 80.3%
Shane Greene Tigers 63.1 5.12 79.4%
Tyler Glasnow – – – 111.2 4.27 78.4%
Andrew Suarez Giants 160.1 4.49 78.4%
Mike Mayers Cardinals 51.2 4.7 78.4%
Jason Hammel Royals 127 6.02 78.4%
James Paxton Mariners 160.1 3.76 77.4%
Chris Stratton Giants 145 5.09 77.4%
Dylan Covey White Sox 121.2 5.18 77.4%
Joey Lucchesi Padres 130 4.08 76.3%
Chris Archer – – – 148.1 4.31 76.3%
Noe Ramirez Angels 83.1 4.54 76.3%
Vince Velasquez Phillies 146.2 4.85 76.3%
Jalen Beeks – – – 50.2 5.51 76.3%
Bryan Shaw Rockies 54.2 5.93 76.3%
Will Harris Astros 56.2 3.49 75.3%
Zack Godley Diamondbacks 178.1 4.74 75.3%
Matt Harvey – – – 155 4.94 75.3%
Nick Kingham Pirates 76 5.21 74.2%
Jaime Garcia – – – 82 5.82 74.2%
Martin Perez Rangers 85.1 6.22 74.2%
Brad Peacock Astros 65 3.46 73.0%
Lucas Giolito White Sox 173.1 6.13 73.0%
Dellin Betances Yankees 66.2 2.7 71.8%
Kenta Maeda Dodgers 125.1 3.81 71.8%
Lance Lynn – – – 156.2 4.77 71.8%
Sonny Gray Yankees 130.1 4.9 71.8%
Luke Weaver Cardinals 136.1 4.95 71.8%
Mike Wright Orioles 84.1 5.55 71.8%
Bartolo Colon Rangers 146.1 5.78 71.8%
Yovani Gallardo – – – 94.1 6.39 71.8%
Matt Barnes Red Sox 61.2 3.65 70.6%
Scott Alexander Dodgers 66 3.68 70.6%
Brett Anderson Athletics 80.1 4.48 70.6%
Sal Romano Reds 145.2 5.31 70.6%
Luis Castillo Reds 169.2 4.3 69.4%
Yefry Ramirez Orioles 65.1 5.92 69.4%
Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks 200 3.15 68.1%
Lance McCullers Jr. Astros 128.1 3.86 68.1%
Marco Gonzales Mariners 166.2 4 68.1%
Adam Conley Marlins 50.2 4.09 68.1%
Andrew Heaney Angels 180 4.15 68.1%
Josh Tomlin Indians 70.1 6.14 68.1%
Brad Boxberger Diamondbacks 53.1 4.39 66.8%
Alex Claudio Rangers 68.1 4.48 66.8%
Sam Freeman Braves 50.1 4.29 65.5%
Joe Jimenez Tigers 62.2 4.31 65.5%
Tyler Mahle Reds 112 4.98 65.5%
Drew Pomeranz Red Sox 74 6.08 65.5%
Josh Hader Brewers 81.1 2.43 64.2%
Stephen Strasburg Nationals 130 3.74 64.2%
Zach Duke – – – 52 4.15 64.2%
Amir Garrett Reds 63 4.29 64.2%
Zach Eflin Phillies 128 4.36 64.2%
Trevor Richards Marlins 126.1 4.42 64.2%
Zach Davies Brewers 66 4.77 64.2%
Ariel Jurado Rangers 54.2 5.93 64.2%
Robert Gsellman Mets 80 4.28 62.8%
Mike Leake Mariners 185.2 4.36 62.8%
Brent Suter Brewers 101.1 4.44 62.8%
Michael Fulmer Tigers 132.1 4.69 62.8%
Jake Diekman – – – 53.1 4.73 62.8%
Wei-Yin Chen Marlins 133.1 4.79 62.8%
Sergio Romo Rays 67.1 4.14 61.4%
Chad Kuhl Pirates 85 4.55 61.4%
Alex Cobb Orioles 152.1 4.9 61.4%
Carlos Carrasco Indians 192 3.38 60.0%
Tyler Skaggs Angels 125.1 4.02 60.0%
Joe Musgrove Pirates 115.1 4.06 60.0%
Pablo Lopez Marlins 58.2 4.14 60.0%
Felix Pena Angels 92.2 4.18 60.0%
Ross Stripling Dodgers 122 3.02 58.6%
Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 156 3.75 58.6%
Ty Blach Giants 118.2 4.25 58.6%
Drew VerHagen Tigers 56.1 4.63 58.6%
Edwin Diaz Mariners 73.1 1.96 57.2%
German Marquez Rockies 196 3.77 57.2%
Rick Porcello Red Sox 191.1 4.28 57.2%
Austin Pruitt Rays 69.2 4.65 57.2%
Jorge Lopez – – – 53.2 5.03 57.2%
Luis Severino Yankees 191.1 3.39 55.7%
Rich Hill Dodgers 132.2 3.66 55.7%
Alex Wood Dodgers 151.2 3.68 55.7%
Jordan Lyles – – – 87.2 4.11 55.7%
Heath Hembree Red Sox 60 4.2 55.7%
Nick Tropeano Angels 76 4.74 55.7%
Eric Skoglund Royals 70 5.14 55.7%
Drew Steckenrider Marlins 64.2 3.9 54.2%
Robbie Ray Diamondbacks 123.2 3.93 54.2%
Steven Matz Mets 154 3.97 54.2%
Taylor Williams Brewers 53 4.25 54.2%
Jakob Junis Royals 177 4.37 54.2%
Joe Kelly Red Sox 65.2 4.39 54.2%
Jordan Zimmermann Tigers 131.1 4.52 54.2%
Bryan Mitchell Padres 73 5.42 54.2%
David Robertson Yankees 69.2 3.23 52.8%
Garrett Richards Angels 76.1 3.66 52.8%
Nathan Eovaldi – – – 111 3.81 52.8%
Austin Gomber Cardinals 75 4.44 52.8%
Brandon Kintzler – – – 60.2 4.6 52.8%
Jarlin Garcia Marlins 66 4.91 52.8%
Jake Faria Rays 65 5.4 52.8%
Bud Norris Cardinals 57.2 3.59 51.3%
Archie Bradley Diamondbacks 71.2 3.64 51.3%
Tyson Ross – – – 149.2 4.15 51.3%
Caleb Smith Marlins 77.1 4.19 51.3%
Ivan Nova Pirates 161 4.19 51.3%
Andrew Cashner Orioles 153 5.29 51.3%
Dallas Keuchel Astros 204.2 3.74 49.8%
Seranthony Dominguez Phillies 58 2.95 49.8%
Trevor Cahill Athletics 110 3.76 49.8%
Wade Davis Rockies 65.1 4.13 49.8%
Eric Lauer Padres 112 4.34 49.8%
Fernando Romero Twins 55.2 4.69 49.8%
Noah Syndergaard Mets 154.1 3.03 48.4%
Adam Cimber – – – 68.1 3.42 48.4%
Jake Arrieta Phillies 172.2 3.96 48.4%
Cody Allen Indians 67 4.7 48.4%
Gerrit Cole Astros 200.1 2.88 46.9%
Hector Rondon Astros 59 3.2 46.9%
Jose Urena Marlins 174 3.98 46.9%
Kyle Barraclough Marlins 55.2 4.2 46.9%
Ian Kennedy Royals 119.2 4.66 46.9%
Ryan Pressly – – – 71 2.54 45.4%
Will Smith Giants 53 2.55 45.4%
Craig Stammen Padres 79 2.73 45.4%
Shohei Ohtani Angels 51.2 3.31 45.4%
Jack Flaherty Cardinals 151 3.34 45.4%
Jose Quintana Cubs 174.1 4.03 45.4%
Justin Anderson Angels 55.1 4.07 45.4%
Freddy Peralta Brewers 78.1 4.25 45.4%
Tanner Roark Nationals 180.1 4.34 45.4%
Danny Duffy Royals 155 4.88 45.4%
Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays 105 4.89 45.4%
Aroldis Chapman Yankees 51.1 2.45 44.0%
Brad Hand – – – 72 2.75 44.0%
Diego Castillo Rays 56.2 3.18 44.0%
Keone Kela – – – 52 3.29 44.0%
Tommy Hunter Phillies 64 3.8 44.0%
Jose Berrios Twins 192.1 3.84 44.0%
Mychal Givens Orioles 76.2 3.99 44.0%
Junior Guerra Brewers 141 4.09 44.0%
Francisco Liriano Tigers 133.2 4.58 44.0%
Marco Estrada Blue Jays 143.2 5.64 44.0%
Joakim Soria – – – 60.2 3.12 42.5%
Charlie Morton Astros 167 3.13 42.5%
Chaz Roe Rays 50.1 3.58 42.5%
Jeurys Familia – – – 72 3.13 41.1%
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks 207.2 3.21 41.1%
Mike Montgomery Cubs 124 3.99 41.1%
Gio Gonzalez – – – 171 4.21 41.1%
Tyler Anderson Rockies 176 4.55 41.1%
Steven Brault Pirates 91.2 4.61 41.1%
Elieser Hernandez Marlins 65.2 5.21 41.1%
Felipe Vazquez Pirates 70 2.7 39.7%
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 161.1 2.73 39.7%
Alex Colome – – – 68 3.04 39.7%
Jameson Taillon Pirates 191 3.2 39.7%
Zack Wheeler Mets 182.1 3.31 39.7%
Dan Winkler Braves 60.1 3.43 39.7%
J.A. Happ – – – 177.2 3.65 39.7%
Cam Bedrosian Angels 64 3.8 39.7%
Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox 129.2 3.82 39.7%
Jefry Rodriguez Nationals 52 5.71 39.7%
Chris Sale Red Sox 158 2.11 38.3%
Corey Kluber Indians 215 2.89 38.3%
Derek Holland Giants 171.1 3.57 38.3%
Kevin Gausman – – – 183.2 3.92 38.3%
Nick Vincent Mariners 56.1 3.99 38.3%
Emilio Pagan Athletics 62 4.35 38.3%
Kenley Jansen Dodgers 71.2 3.01 36.9%
Kyle Hendricks Cubs 199 3.44 36.9%
Kyle Gibson Twins 196.2 3.62 36.9%
Jim Johnson Angels 63.1 3.84 36.9%
Chasen Shreve – – – 52.2 3.93 36.9%
Matthew Boyd Tigers 170.1 4.39 36.9%
Chad Bettis Rockies 120.1 5.01 36.9%
Kirby Yates Padres 63 2.14 35.5%
Justin Verlander Astros 214 2.52 35.5%
Tony Watson Giants 66 2.59 35.5%
Taylor Rogers Twins 68.1 2.63 35.5%
A.J. Minter Braves 61.1 3.23 35.5%
Yonny Chirinos Rays 89.2 3.51 35.5%
Ryan Tepera Blue Jays 64.2 3.62 35.5%
Cole Hamels – – – 190.2 3.78 35.5%
Ryan Yarbrough Rays 147.1 3.91 35.5%
Doug Fister Rangers 66 4.5 35.5%
Adam Plutko Indians 76.2 5.28 35.5%
Tyler Chatwood Cubs 103.2 5.3 35.5%
Walker Buehler Dodgers 137.1 2.62 34.2%
Kevin McCarthy Royals 72 3.25 34.2%
Heath Fillmyer Royals 82.1 4.26 34.2%
Jesse Biddle Braves 63.2 3.11 32.9%
John Brebbia Cardinals 50.2 3.2 32.9%
Hansel Robles – – – 56 3.7 32.9%
Sean Newcomb Braves 164 3.9 32.9%
Jake Odorizzi Twins 164.1 4.49 32.9%
James Shields White Sox 204.2 4.53 32.9%
Max Scherzer Nationals 220.2 2.53 31.6%
Craig Kimbrel Red Sox 62.1 2.74 31.6%
David Price Red Sox 176 3.58 31.6%
Cory Gearrin – – – 57.1 3.77 31.6%
Lou Trivino Athletics 74 2.92 30.3%
Edgar Santana Pirates 66.1 3.26 30.3%
Justin Wilson Cubs 54.2 3.46 30.3%
Jordan Hicks Cardinals 77.2 3.59 30.3%
Wade LeBlanc Mariners 162 3.72 30.3%
Daniel Mengden Athletics 115.2 4.05 30.3%
Tyler Clippard Blue Jays 68.2 3.67 29.1%
Dan Straily Marlins 122.1 4.12 29.1%
Antonio Senzatela Rockies 90.1 4.38 29.1%
Scott Oberg Rockies 58.2 2.45 27.9%
Seth Lugo Mets 101.1 2.66 27.9%
Blake Parker Angels 66.1 3.26 27.9%
Sean Manaea Athletics 160.2 3.59 27.9%
Justin Miller Nationals 52.1 3.61 27.9%
Frankie Montas Athletics 65 3.88 27.9%
Matt Koch Diamondbacks 86.2 4.15 27.9%
Mike Minor Rangers 157 4.18 27.9%
Addison Reed Twins 56 4.5 27.9%
David Hess Orioles 103.1 4.88 27.9%
Jose Alvarado Rays 64 2.39 26.7%
Chad Green Yankees 75.2 2.5 26.7%
Brad Brach – – – 62.2 3.59 26.7%
CC Sabathia Yankees 153 3.65 26.7%
Miles Mikolas Cardinals 200.2 2.83 25.6%
Fernando Rodney – – – 64.1 3.36 25.6%
Ryan Borucki Blue Jays 97.2 3.87 25.6%
Jacob deGrom Mets 217 1.7 24.5%
Alex Wilson Tigers 61.2 3.36 24.5%
Julio Teheran Braves 175.2 3.94 24.5%
Brian Johnson Red Sox 99.1 4.17 24.5%
Aaron Nola Phillies 212.1 2.37 23.4%
Sam Dyson Giants 70.1 2.69 23.4%
Michael Wacha Cardinals 84.1 3.2 23.4%
Dan Jennings Brewers 64.1 3.22 23.4%
Jeremy Hellickson Nationals 91.1 3.45 22.4%
Chasen Bradford Mariners 53.2 3.69 22.4%
Richard Rodriguez Pirates 69.1 2.47 21.4%
Ryne Stanek Rays 66.1 2.98 21.4%
Madison Bumgarner Giants 129.2 3.26 21.4%
Mike Fiers – – – 172 3.56 21.4%
Chase Anderson Brewers 158 3.93 21.4%
Hector Santiago White Sox 102 4.41 21.4%
Mike Foltynewicz Braves 183 2.85 20.4%
Mike Clevinger Indians 200 3.02 20.4%
Matt Magill Twins 56.2 3.81 20.4%
Trevor Bauer Indians 175.1 2.21 19.5%
Jhoulys Chacin Brewers 192.2 3.5 19.5%
Blaine Hardy Tigers 86 3.56 19.5%
Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers 82.1 1.97 18.6%
Adam Ottavino Rockies 77.2 2.43 18.6%
Jesse Chavez – – – 95.1 2.55 18.6%
Anibal Sanchez Braves 136.2 2.83 18.6%
Matt Grace Nationals 59.2 2.87 18.6%
Brian Flynn Royals 75.2 4.04 18.6%
Buck Farmer Tigers 69.1 4.15 18.6%
Pedro Baez Dodgers 56.1 2.88 17.7%
Jon Lester Cubs 181.2 3.32 17.7%
Jorge De La Rosa – – – 56 3.38 17.7%
James Pazos Mariners 50 2.88 16.8%
Yusmeiro Petit Athletics 93 3 16.8%
Adam Warren – – – 51.2 3.14 16.8%
John Gant Cardinals 114 3.47 16.8%
Collin McHugh Astros 72.1 1.99 16.0%
Jose Alvarez Angels 63 2.71 16.0%
Johnny Cueto Giants 53 3.23 16.0%
Carlos Rodon White Sox 120.2 4.18 16.0%
Blake Snell Rays 180.2 1.89 15.3%
Raisel Iglesias Reds 72 2.38 15.3%
Victor Arano Phillies 59.1 2.73 15.3%
Brad Keller Royals 140.1 3.08 14.5%
Carlos Martinez Cardinals 118.2 3.11 14.5%
Reynaldo Lopez White Sox 188.2 3.91 14.5%
Seung Hwan Oh – – – 68.1 2.63 12.5%
Trevor Williams Pirates 170.2 3.11 12.5%
Louis Coleman Tigers 51.1 3.51 12.5%
Reyes Moronta Giants 65 2.49 11.8%
Michael Lorenzen Reds 81 3.11 11.8%
Edwin Jackson Athletics 92 3.33 11.2%
Jaime Barria Angels 129.1 3.41 11.2%
Miguel Castro Orioles 86.1 3.96 11.2%
Jared Hughes Reds 78.2 1.94 10.7%
Dylan Floro – – – 64 2.25 10.7%
Carl Edwards Jr. Cubs 52 2.6 10.7%
Jonathan Holder Yankees 66 3.14 10.7%
Kyle Crick Pirates 60.1 2.39 10.1%
Blake Treinen Athletics 80.1 0.78 9.6%
Jeremy Jeffress Brewers 76.2 1.29 9.6%
Shane Carle Braves 63 2.86 9.6%
Hector Velazquez Red Sox 85 3.18 9.6%
Jose Leclerc Rangers 57.2 1.56 9.1%
Yoshihisa Hirano Diamondbacks 66.1 2.44 9.1%
David Hernandez Reds 64 2.53 9.1%
Dereck Rodriguez Giants 118.1 2.81 8.6%
Matt Strahm Padres 61.1 2.05 8.2%
Steve Cishek Cubs 70.1 2.18 7.7%
Wade Miley Brewers 80.2 2.57 7.3%
Kyle Freeland Rockies 202.1 2.85 7.3%
T.J. McFarland Diamondbacks 72 2 6.9%
Pedro Strop Cubs 59.2 2.26 6.9%
Clay Buchholz Diamondbacks 98.1 2.01 5.0%
Steven Wright Red Sox 53.2 2.68 5.0%
Roenis Elias Mariners 51 2.65 4.4%

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